Downpour Downunder

So, if a wine is more expensive it follows that said wine should be better, right?  Well, no.  Both Australia and New Zealand have experienced a cool summer this year and are looking at a developing weather bomb that may damage much of the (already late) grape harvest.  The losses in volume have to be made up and so this might be passed along as higher prices for those wines.  In short, the same factors that dictate price in every consumable are the factors that dictate price for wine: supply, demand, production costs and quality.  Therefor, when enough of the factors are impacted negatively producers are faced with having to increase prices to cover losses and meet production costs or suffer losses and not have funds for the next season's plantings.

Does this mean Australian and New Zealand wines for the 2012 vintage will be expensive?  Well, no.  Producers still have the option of augmenting yields with imported grapes to offset any damages that might occur and, governments have the option of subsidies for crop losses.  However, if you are a fan of these regions' wines, you may have to do your research prior to purchasing to avoid disappointment.  It will also mean depending on barrel tasting to determine the quality.  Certainly, if barrel tasting shows good signs and yields are reduced, the best of each region will come in at a much higher price.  Lower end wines will probably see some "enhancements" through technique and imported grapes and keep the prices within sale-able range.

I will also add, there is nothing to say that the crops will be damaged prior to harvesting and they may reach above average yields, but with a cool summer and late harvest the wine world will be interested to see how the Kiwis and Aussies respond.  And, I think this is just a great illustration of how wine prices are determined and how various regions respond.

The other point of interest is the 2011 season here in Ontario and upper New York wine regions was equally atypical with an extremely wet harvest.  It will be fascinating to, eventually, get to tastings between these four regions' products from the 2011/2012 vintages.  I love my hobby.

Edit: Here is an interesting story that will also illustrate how wine prices are set.

Niagara Harvest 2011

Ok, the Niagara region harvest is just about done, except for the ice and dessert wine varieties, and I have a prediction.  This is just an exercise and I claim no secret powers or even any expertise, I just want to go on record with what I think the 2011 year will bring for wineries.

This year saw the region reach record highs, albeit for short stretches, and the crucial months of September and October saw damp conditions, as did the early months of May and June.  The rain in late September and early October would have a negative effect on the Riesling, Sauvignon Blanc, Gerwurztraminer, Pinot Gris and Chardonnay due to a natural lowering of acid.  Look for the 2011 whites to lack the traditional tart apple components and I am guessing many producers will forego the high end wines and concentrate on less expensive, higher yield wines to keep profits up. Inexperienced wine makers will see whites that are flabby in taste.

Reds, on the other hand, might be quite interesting and I think will be a good year for those who have been cultivating Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot varieties.  These wines love the heat resulting in a beefier wine, and, with the right amount of oak, could have some very nice complexity.  I think it will be a good year for the red Canadian/International blends.  Look for some new projects from some of the smaller, more flexible wineries - I read that Rosewood was attempting a Bordeaux style of wine.

Overall, the weather presented an interesting challenge for wine makers in Niagara, as it usually does.  Climate change and a generally warming trend in the region means that Niagara may soon see their traditional grapes replaced by varieties associated with warmer climates.   I feel there will be some interesting times ahead for the industry and look forward to how they respond.  As for 2011, expect high yield, lower end whites and some very interesting reds.

That's my prediction, I'll probably be contradicted by the very first experts to weigh in but, let's see how I do once the wines hit the shelves (yeah, more wine tastings!).